For beginners2 min read
How often does an opening stay free of mistakes?
Less often than you think: up to half-move 20, only every 4th side up to 999 stays free of mistakes, from 2200 it is 82%. Up to half-move 40 it is 9% and 40%.
- up to half-move 20
- up to half-move 30
- up to half-move 40
What it means
- Up to 1399 Elo, more than half of all sides make at least one mistake within the first 20 half-moves.
- It gets rarer with every ten half-moves: from 55% up to half-move 20 to 17% up to half-move 40 in the 1400–1599 group.
- A flawless opening is not a given but a goal you can train.
| Rating | up to 20 | up to 30 | up to 40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| up to 999 | 28.4% | 13.4% | 8.6% |
| 1000–1199 | 40.2% | 19.1% | 11.2% |
| 1200–1399 | 47.9% | 23.9% | 13.5% |
| 1400–1599 | 54.9% | 29.2% | 16.6% |
| 1600–1799 | 61.9% | 35.1% | 20.1% |
| 1800–1999 | 68.3% | 41.7% | 24.7% |
| 2000–2199 | 74.7% | 49.1% | 30.6% |
| 2200+ | 82.2% | 59.6% | 40.2% |
Only games at least that long. Counted per side, White and Black separately.
Questions
- What counts as a mistake here?
- A move that costs at least 10 points of winning chances, rated by the Stockfish engine. Positions that are already decided do not count.
- How many moves are 20 half-moves?
- Ten moves per side: the first ten moves of White and of Black.