For improvers3 min read
Which openings punish the exit
In the King's Gambit Accepted the move that leaves theory is a mistake in 30% of cases at 1400–1799 Elo, in the Polish Opening in 4%. Open games punish the exit hardest.
- King's Gambit Accepted30%
- King's Gambit Declined25%
- Elephant Gambit24%
- Scotch Game23%
- Italian Game23%
- Petrov's Defense22%
- Four Knights Game21%
- Ponziani Opening20%
Rating 1400–1799, half-moves 8 to 24, loss of 10 points or more.
- Polish Opening4%
- Dutch Defense6%
- Old Indian Defense6%
- Mieses Opening6%
- Bird Opening7%
- Horwitz Defense7%
- Semi-Slav Defense7%
- Rat Defense8%
What the numbers show
- The riskiest exits are in open games: King's Gambit Accepted, King's Gambit Declined, Elephant Gambit, Scotch Game. There you leave theory late, at a median of half-move 12 to 15, and then pay the most.
- Closed and flank openings are safest: Polish Opening, Dutch Defense, Old Indian Defense, Mieses Opening. The mistake rate on the exit is below 8% there.
- The risk belongs to the opening, not only to the exit: where the exit is risky, the theory before it is too (correlation 0.97) and so is the way after it (correlation 0.86).
- Compared with inside theory, the jump is smallest in the risky openings, a median of 3.2 times, because the theory there is already sharp, and largest in the safe ones, 8.5 times.
- Theory reaches furthest in the Italian Game (median half-move 15) and is shortest in the Van't Kruijs Opening (half-move 7).
| Opening | Theory ends | inside theory | exit | after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Gambit Accepted | 12 | 10.7% | 29.6% | 17.9% |
| King's Gambit Declined | 11 | 9.1% | 25.1% | 17.1% |
| Elephant Gambit | 11 | 7.0% | 24.1% | 14.9% |
| Scotch Game | 15 | 8.1% | 23.2% | 14.4% |
| Italian Game | 15 | 5.9% | 22.7% | 14.0% |
| Petrov's Defense | 13 | 8.1% | 22.0% | 13.6% |
| Four Knights Game | 15 | 5.7% | 20.5% | 13.9% |
| Ponziani Opening | 13 | 5.7% | 20.4% | 13.5% |
| Polish Opening | 8 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 8.6% |
| Dutch Defense | 11 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 10.8% |
| Old Indian Defense | 11 | 0.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% |
| Mieses Opening | 7 | 0.9% | 6.4% | 11.8% |
| Bird Opening | 9 | 0.8% | 6.7% | 11.4% |
| Horwitz Defense | 10 | 0.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% |
| Semi-Slav Defense | 14 | 0.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Rat Defense | 10 | 2.0% | 7.8% | 11.5% |
Rating 1400–1799. Theory ends: median half-move.