Why does a mistake often lead to the next?

After a mistake the position is often worse and sharper, and thinking gets harder. Our numbers show the link, not the cause.

Does this hold for very strong players?

Yes. From 2200 Elo, a mistake is followed by another in 18% of cases, the average is 7%.

For improversOctober 4, 20262 min read

Yes. After a mistake, the next move of the same player is 1.8 to 2.4 times as likely to be one: 31% against 17% up to 999, 18% against 7% from 2200.

The mistake rate rises when the previous own move was a mistake

The jump shows in all eight rating groups, from 1.8× to 2.4×.
Relatively it is largest among the strongest players: 18.1% against 7.4%.
Mistakes often come in a row. A position where you already went wrong once deserves a second look.

Mistake rate of the next own move

Rating	after a mistake	overall	Factor
up to 999	30.8%	16.8%	1.8×
1000–1199	26.8%	14.0%	1.9×
1200–1399	25.0%	12.7%	2.0×
1400–1599	23.5%	11.6%	2.0×
1600–1799	22.2%	10.6%	2.1×
1800–1999	21.0%	9.7%	2.2×
2000–2199	19.9%	8.7%	2.3×
2200+	18.1%	7.4%	2.4×

3,895 million pairs of consecutive own moves.

Why does a mistake often lead to the next?: After a mistake the position is often worse and sharper, and thinking gets harder. Our numbers show the link, not the cause.
Does this hold for very strong players?: Yes. From 2200 Elo, a mistake is followed by another in 18% of cases, the average is 7%.