For improvers4 min read
What mistakes inside theory look like
Even inside theory some moves are rated down by the engine. At 1400–1599 Elo, 61% of them lose less than 15 points, outside theory it is 41%. Blunders are 7% inside theory and 17% after it.
- inside theory
- outside theory
What the numbers show
- Inside theory most mistakes are mild: 56% to 68% lose less than 15 points. Those are mostly second-best moves, such as 1. e4 d5 2. Nf3 or 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Bc5.
- Real traps exist, but they are specific: 1. e4 e5 2. Qh5 g6 loses 40 points on average and was played 17,322 times up to 999 Elo.
- The mistakes are spread wide. At 1400–1599 Elo the 100 most common mistake moves make up 18% of them, the 1,000 most common 39%.
- Outside theory it weighs more: blunders are 10% to 26% of the mistakes there, inside theory 6% to 11%.
| Rating | 10 to 15 | 15 to 30 | 30 and up | 30 and up outside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up to 999 | 56% | 33% | 11% | 26% |
| 1000–1199 | 58% | 33% | 9% | 22% |
| 1200–1399 | 60% | 32% | 8% | 19% |
| 1400–1599 | 61% | 31% | 7% | 17% |
| 1600–1799 | 63% | 31% | 7% | 15% |
| 1800–1999 | 64% | 29% | 6% | 14% |
| 2000–2199 | 66% | 27% | 6% | 12% |
| 2200+ | 68% | 25% | 6% | 10% |
Share of all mistakes, half-moves 2 to 39. Outside theory counts the exit and every later move.
| Rating | Moves | Played | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| up to 999 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 f6 | 44,861 | 12.8 |
| up to 999 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Bc5 | 40,993 | 13.9 |
| up to 999 | 1. e4 d5 2. Nf3 | 33,291 | 11.8 |
| up to 999 | 1. e4 e5 2. Qh5 g6 | 17,322 | 40.3 |
| up to 999 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Bc5 3. Bc4 | 16,360 | 12.4 |
| 1400–1599 | 1. e4 d5 2. Nf3 | 53,074 | 11.8 |
| 1400–1599 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Bc5 | 33,981 | 13.9 |
| 1400–1599 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. Nxe5 Nc6 | 29,119 | 11.9 |
| 1400–1599 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 exd4 4. Ng5 | 23,613 | 12.0 |
| 1400–1599 | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Bc5 3. Bc4 | 19,987 | 12.4 |
| 2200+ | 1. e4 d5 2. Nf3 | 9,298 | 11.8 |
| 2200+ | 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 f5 | 7,334 | 10.9 |
| 2200+ | 1. e4 d5 2. d4 | 7,105 | 10.8 |
| 2200+ | 1. d4 e5 2. Nf3 | 5,938 | 12.4 |
| 2200+ | 1. d4 e5 2. c4 | 5,919 | 10.3 |
Mean loss in points of winning chances. The last move of the line is the mistake.
Questions
- What counts as theory here?
- A position that appeared in at least 100 games of the study at that half-move. Common does not mean good: widespread moves can be rated down too.