Modern Defense
At 1400–1799 Elo, theory ends around half-move 11. The move that leaves it is a mistake in 12% of cases, 3.4 times as often as a move inside it.
Where theory ends
Half-move at which a game leaves what at least 100 games played. Half of all games end between the two outer numbers.
- up to 139910half-movehalf of the games: 9 to 12
- 1400–179911half-movehalf of the games: 9 to 13
- 1800+12half-movehalf of the games: 10 to 14
How risky the exit is
Share of moves that lose at least 10 points of winning chances, in the same stretch of the game (half-moves 8 to 24).
up to 1399
- Inside theory5.2%
- The move that leaves it18.0%
- After it16.8%
3.5× the risk of a move inside theory
1400–1799
- Inside theory3.7%
- The move that leaves it12.4%
- After it12.5%
3.4× the risk of a move inside theory
1800+
- Inside theory1.8%
- The move that leaves it7.5%
- After it8.7%
4.2× the risk of a move inside theory
Most common mistakes inside theory
Moves the engine rates down although many players choose them. The last move of each line is the mistake, the loss is the mean in points of winning chances.
- 1. e4 g6 2. Qf3 Bg7 3. Bc4 Nf63,375 played, 20.8 points lost
- 1. e4 g6 2. Bc4 Bg7 3. Bxf7+3,211 played, 24.2 points lost
- 1. e4 g6 2. d4 Bg7 3. Nf3 d6 4. Bc4 Bg43,182 played, 17.4 points lost
- 1. d4 Nf6 2. e4 g63,141 played, 14.5 points lost
- 1. e4 g6 2. d4 Bg7 3. Nf3 d6 4. Bc4 Nd72,610 played, 27.6 points lost
- 1. e4 g6 2. Nf3 Bg7 3. d4 e6 4. Nc3 Ne7 5. Be3 O-O 6. Bd32,003 played, 13 points lost
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Opening names from the Lichess opening database (CC0). A game belongs to the most specific named opening it reaches within 39 half-moves.